MOMENT OF TRUTH
Last season marked the first time in nearly a decade that Pro Vercelli failed to improve on its league position from the year before. After a summer of tough questions, Lions manager Brian Phillips sat down with our Riccardo Nicastro to talk about what happens next. Just don’t ask him about that game against Inter…
by RICCARDO NICASTRO
What went wrong last season?
You know, some people would say that a club like Pro Vercelli finishing eleventh in Serie A represents something going right, not something going wrong.
Ah. But my friend, you and I both know differently.
Yeah, well, I obviously don’t disagree. A lot of things went wrong last season. If I had to limit it to two areas, I’d say that tactically, we did a terrible job creating shots from open play, and as a team, we lacked the ruthlessness of spirit that you see in, say, Tennyson’s “Charge of the Light Brigade.”
“Into the jaws of death; into the mouth of hell.”
Exactly. We were more like, “Into the jaws of mild inconvenience; into the mouth of not wanting to wake up sore on Monday.”
And the defensive lapses?
I blame our defensive lapses entirely on the psychological issue. Maybe we had some minor fitness problems as a result of having a small squad and a lot of fixture congestion. But ultimately, we had the players and the scheme we needed to stop other teams from scoring. We were just mentally spongy.
You must know that many fans blame Ibrahimovic.
Well, look, I’m not going to sit here and tell you I think Senad was an adequate leader. That’s why one of the first things I did this summer was to take his armband away. As a captain, he was less Nelson and more Nelson if Nelson had spent the entire course of the Napoleonic Wars pleading for a transfer to the French. The man was Achilles in his tent, minus about three quarters of Achilles. I realize some people are going to read this and think I’m trying to throw Senad under the bus, but Senad knows how I feel about this. Senad saw the bus, liked the bus, crawled under the bus on his own hands and knees, and waited patiently for the bus to start rolling. I deserve a lot of blame for making him captain in the first place.
At the time, you felt you had no choice.
It was a stopgap measure and honestly, I misread Senad’s temperament. Michael [Dogan] was clearly our captain of the future, but he was too young, too new to the team, and, uh, too completely unable to speak Italian yet. Landry [Akassou, the previous captain] had been a great servant to the club, but he was on his way into the reserves and wasn’t going to get many starts once we’d signed Contini. Senad was the most commanding presence on the team, an established veteran all the other players admired. It just never occurred to me that he’d go all Bachelorette the second a Liverpool scout parked his ship in the dock. Senad and I have talked about this.
Yes, somewhat surprisingly, you resolved your differences with all of your disgruntled players over the summer. Can you tell us how you managed it?
Well, I’d say there were five factors, and three of them were money. I think when the news of the new stadium came down, right after the good luck from the Fair Play draw, some of those guys were a little more willing to think about staying at the club. We had money to spend, so as soon as they were ready to enter into contract negotiations, I did what I could to re-sign them. Everybody’s feeling pretty good right now, and nobody’s gone too goggly-eyed over Roma this summer, so hopefully the new trend will continue once the season starts.
Tell us about the new stadium.
You mean Restoration of Sanity Fieldhouse? I can’t tell you what a boost it was, after every single thing went wrong last year, to get word that the board were building a new 23,000-seat arena. It’s going to have undersoil heating, Riccardo. No more specially choosing cleats based on the precise difference in thickness between hoarfrost and rime! I could not be more excited about this.
And it will be ready in approximately one year, is that correct?
That’s correct. Our main job this year is to make sure we give the Silvio a decent sending-off.
Yes; we wouldn’t want its final match to be something like that game against Inter.
That was at the San Siro. And don’t ask me about that game against Inter.
But given your well-known feelings on the natural rivalry between Pro Vercelli and Inter, to see them win the championship by erasing a two-goal deficit to defeat you in the last 15 minutes must have been as painful for you as it was for the fans.
Don’t ask me about that game against Inter.
In that case, alas, I must ask the hard question. What have you done to ensure that next season will be different from last.
We’ve done everything we can. I’m not messing with you, Riccardo. Roberto [Colapietro, Pro Vercelli's assistant manager] and I went deep into the mix of this team and decided what to adjust based on a relentless quest to apprehend the nature of reality. It was a journey into hard math and the realm of the human soul. I think the result is going to blow people’s minds next season. Now, granted, I thought that last season, too, so maybe you’ll say you shouldn’t listen to me, but shut up.
Can you be a great deal more specific?
It breaks down a few different ways. One, we’re pulling the striker back slightly in the attacking scheme so that he doesn’t lose so many first touches to the marking defender. Two, we’ve added a couple of new configurations within the 4-3-3 to enable us to control possession in midfield, on the one hand, and kill off a game at the end, on the other. Three, we’re demoting Barone and bringing in an extremely promising 19-year-old Brazilian striker called Teixeira to alternate with Galli in the starting 11. I know some fans aren’t happy about this because they’ve heard he’s a prima donna. I think he’s going to score goals, and since he scored two before halftime in his first match (granted, it was a Europa League qualifier), I think he’s going to win people over.
Four, I’ve made Michael Dogan captain, and let Senad know he’s on a short leash. Interestingly, Michael won the Serie A Defender of the Season award that Senad got last year, so I’m hoping this will light a fire under Captain Liverpool. Five, we’ve used some of our Champions League TV money to buy a youth team. I won’t go into details on individual players until one or more of them is ready to start, but we have five or six promising kids who should put some pressure on the first team and give us cover in the event of an injury. They’ve been playing in all our Europa League qualifiers, and even given that Average Bucharesti isn’t exactly Arsenal, they’ve scored a ton and haven’t conceded a goal. So far, so good.
Six, I’ve completely revamped our training system, designing individual schedules for every player under 26 based on my latest theories about how to wring the most out of each player.
Seven, I’ve brought in an attack-minded midfielder to play in the center of the park, where we’ve been essentially packing three defensive midfielders simultaneously. Naci Balci was more of a natural attacker, but he’s been shipped off to Shakhtar as punishment for demanding an absurd amount of money in his new contract. The new player is Kenji Mogi, Lecce’s brilliant Japanese international, and since he’s both a little older—26—and sterner of mind than Naci, I’m hoping he’ll add some danger to the middle of the pitch.
Siobhan pointed out that this means we’re a northern Italian team relying on a commanding German player for leadership and a resolute Japanese player for attacking flair. I don’t want to say who that makes us, but it’s probably no surprise that Jorge Ibáñez was always so conflicted while he was here.
You are describing the team as the Axis powers.
If you’re selling a sham doctrine of racial purity, we’ve got fake scientists ready to listen.
And what do you feel about having become the Axis powers?
Shame. I feel shame, Riccardo. On the other hand, it more or less accurately describes my mood toward the rest of the league.
By this, you mean to give the fans a sense that you’ve devised an organized and powerful response to the problem.
No. I have devised an organized and powerful response to the problem. The only sense I’m trying to give the fans is that last year was an aberration and this year world shipping had better look out for our U-boats.
Thank you, my friend, for taking the time to speak to us. I hope Adèle and I will see you at the villa again before the season starts.
Are you planning to finish that cappuccino?
Read More: Football Manager 2009, Pixel Dramas, Pro Vercelli
by Brian Phillips · May 15, 2009
Are you a fan of The Wire?
I am. Why?
I’m reminded of Bubbles/Johnny, when Johnny wants to do the counterfeit cash trick and Bubbles tells him he’s still green.
I’ve hardly stopped since my copy arrived. I won’t carry the green/brown analogy any further, but if this isn’t addiction I don’t know what is.
Wait…am I Bubbles or Johnny in this metaphor?
Oh, you’re Bubbles. I have no idea what I’m doing. At all.
It is incredibly fun, though.
Brian – have you ever entertained the thought of employing the services of a “goon” on your side? I believe goon is too harsh a word, but, relative to your team’s incredibly fair play, this would be a player who could shake things up a bit. By no means am I suggesting a no talent hack…moreso a skilled footballer with a mean streak in him.
I have a defensive mid with Senad Ibrahimovic-esque marks (faster and can mark better, but not as technically skilled as Senad), except with 19 aggression. He was a loose cannon when he first joined my squad, earning yellows frequently, the occasional double yellow, and the occasional straight red. I started suspending him for some of his antics (3 weeks total), and now he’s settled into a nice routine of hard fair tackles and making life miserable for any opponent who challenges him (anyone who tends to be in his area usually ends up getting subbed out because all those hard tackles accelerate the decline of their in game conditioning).
Ultimately, my point is that the opponents may be wearing out your side more than you are wearing them out…thus, they are fresher at the end of the match. A goon could help lead the charge in the physical play department. A little “street cred” for the Bianche Cassacche may further your quest for world domination.
I think perhaps you’re a little harsh on Ibra, 3rd best defender in the league. Perhaps this is a manager feeling the pressure, looking for a scapegoat, knowing that the new owners will want success? Or perhaps he deserves it and reads this blog, and will use it as a spur to continue his ongoing development.
Good luck this season, what importance will you place on the Europa League? Will you want to win it, or only if it is convenient, that is you’re not pushing for top 4/threatened by relegation a la ‘Arry Redknapp?
Kind regards, Viva Santa Eulalia
Hetz — That’s a good thought. I think low aggression is a problem for us, but probably a bigger problem is that our tackling has been too easy in general, a relic of the age when we didn’t have players skilled enough to make hard tackles without paralyzing their opponents. I’m not sure if we need a dedicated goon (though I wouldn’t necessarily turn one down if I found one who fit the team otherwise) but encouraging the players we have to get in touch with their inner goonishness might do wonders.
t’OM — Believe me, if you had him on your team…every other day last year it was an “Ibrahimovic unsettled by transfer rumor” story or an “Ibrahimovic looking to move” story. He spent more time complaining about how Pro Vercelli couldn’t take his career any further than he did training. And he was supposed to be the captain of the team! So the deal this year is that if he gets to complain about us in the press, we get to complain about him in the press. He’s a fantastic player, which is the reason I kept him, but he needs to learn that the manager of Arsenal paying him a compliment isn’t a reason to burn down the stands at the Silvio Piola.
The Europa League will definitely be a secondary focus next season. The league (and with it, Champions League qualification) is the top priority. My plan for the EL is to keep playing our youth players as much as possible, using a mix of senior players as needed to make sure we reach the knockout stages. If we were to reach, say, the last 16, I’d probably start giving it more attention, but again not if it conflicted with our league ambitions.
Again, a fantastic read Brian.
I marvel that you design individual training regimes. I’ll design some for positions or roles, clustering players together imagining them drilling together and all that, but I don’t tweak that often. Trainning’s always the portion of FM’s immersiveness that gets too much for me and my brain gets kind of mushy.
Great writing as always.
What’s your approach to finding youth players and integrating them into a team? Are you building a full reserve squad out of them (I know the first team is fairly lean on numbers)? Are you scouting and signing several starlets speculatively, or are you being more selective?
Best of luck with the new season. I shouldn’t be nearly as riveted as I am.
I am curious too about the youth integration. In my game, i end up hoarding young talent and it seems like none of them ever meet anywhere close to their potential. I am guessing it is because they are fighting over playing time in the reserves for too long. Brian, i would be curious to your understading of how players develop in the game.
If anyone hasn’t read the text on the Kindle at the head of the article, do so now. Good shit.
Brian-
Im curious as to defensive stats and what I call the “sketch stats.” How many rebound goals/second chance goals does your side get with just one striker?
How many tackles does your side get on defenders in the offensive zone? i know you like the possession and methodical approach, but perhaps your players would be better suited to a high pressure 4-4-2?
Also, I loved the Return of the Jedi comment. I also have questions as to the alliance with the Ewoks, although it was successful.
In some of those FM-related divorce cases you often hear about, isn’t conducting interviews with yourself one of the reasons cited?
I don’t get it. Riccardo Nicastro has been happily married for something like 35 years.
Just caught the questions about youth integration and training. The quick answers:
On the purchasing of children
I buy them speculatively, as long as I can pick them up for an amount that doesn’t seem very painful (currently around €1-1.5 million). If they’re free or really cheap, I don’t worry about scouting them too heavily, because the odds are they’re still better than the U20s we’re generating in Vercelli. If they’re more expensive, I need a consensus scouting view that they have very high potential. And then, since so many of the good young players in the game are South American, I have to factor in the cap on non-EU player signings in Serie A. (You only get two a year, so depending on the year I usually won’t spend more than one of those picks on a 17-year-old.)
On the training of children to do what you desire
As far as I know, the latest thinking, which is supported by some pretty impressive research, is that within the game, training plays no role in making players get better. All training does is to shape the distribution of the abilities the player already has. That’s a realization that has huge implications for youth development. Here’s the story:
— Every player has a “current ability” score, which is distributed among his actual stats. Every player also has a “potential ability” score, which represents his ceiling of development. You can’t see these, but you can get a sense of them from your scout reports and from looking at the player’s stats.
— Training affects the distribution of the current ability points, but does not actually make the CA rise toward the potential ability limit. So if you have a player do intensive work on tactics and only light work on aerobics, any gain in his current ability is likely to show up as an increase in Decisions (for example), rather than Pace.
— The only significance of coaching stars is that they affect the degree of control you have over this distribution. Especially with young players, it’s possible to reshape their abilities by redistributing current ability points (i.e., Strength goes down, Creativity goes up), and a 7-star coach will make this happen more quickly and to a greater extent than a 2-star coach. But again, neither coach will have any effect on whether your player’s current ability actually rises toward the potential ability limit.
— The factors that make the CA rise toward the PA are: 1) The quality of your training facilities, 2) Age, and (most importantly) 3) Match experience.
— The factors that matter for match experience are: 1) The reputation of the league the match is played in (i.e., it’s a lot better for a player to play a game in La Liga than in the Serie B reserves); 2) The reputation of the opponent (playing Barcelona will make the player improve more than playing against the Lecce U20s); 3) The rating the player receives in the match (getting a 5.1 won’t help him as much as getting a 8.9). So there’s a balancing act: you want the player to be playing at the highest level in which he can consistently get good ratings in games.
— In other words, the most basic way to think about this is that matches improve players’ abilities and training shapes players’ abilities.
I can’t claim to know any of this as gospel truth, because I’ve only had part of a season to test it. But it certainly matches my impressions, and if it’s true, it at least demystifies the relation of a lot of aspects of the game. You’re not trying to design a training schedule that’s somehow magically balanced to bring about an explosion of green arrows; you’re just using the training sliders to indicate how you want the player’s abilities to be shaped. That’s why I decided it made sense to devise individual training schedules for my young players this year—to try to play a more active role in shaping players based on their strengths and weakness. Once a player hits 25 or 26, his abilities are much less malleable, so it might make sense to have generic position-specific schedules for those players.
Of course, there are various other factors to keep in mind, which are appropriately complicated and hard to keep straight. (For instance, apparently physical abilities cost more CA points than mental or technical abilities, so in many cases it makes sense not to over-emphasize physical training.) But those are the basics of the theory I’m trying out. I’ve got around a dozen players between the ages of 16 and 22 that I’m monitoring, so I’ll let you know how it works out over time.
I just got to know of ur blog via the EPL awards thing.
Though I’ve been to other blogs all season, I feel cheated not to have known runofplay better.
Big ups.
*I’m a football blogging neophyte, Comments on what you think of my still-in-progress blog would be welcome!
Your player development theory makes sense, and shines a light of clarity on my otherwise murky youth system, but my most succesful product (a centre-back who got his 1st Spain cap aged 18, and was declared ‘world-class’ by the Gods aged 19) played almost entirely in my under-18s for his development, barring a couple of cameos.
Given a Wenger-esque perversion of mine I tend to play upwards of 5 teenagers in any given starting 11, and while they tend to develop pretty well, none of them had the same “explosion of green arrows” my Basque brick-wall did. It even got my Columbarian Assistant Manager (I saw him microwave a ding dong in the foil wrapper… Twice)to comment on his readiness for first team action. Maybe it waa an abberation through a perfect storm of massive potential and a bloated coaching staff budget, but I don’t think the amount of first team action is that important beyond a certain point.
As a sidenote, what quality should you be looking for in a coach you want to take set-pieces? It’s my El Dorado, having been through nearly 30 ill-advised hirings in the hope of getting two more little stars to complete the set.
I’m sure chance plays some role, and I’d also guess that traits like determination and ambition have an effect. But it might just be the case that your centerback had much more potential than the players you were starting. Who knows, he might have been even better if he’d been getting first team action all that time. Also, if he got his first Spain cap at 18, it sounds like he started with a pretty high CA to begin with.
The rules governing coaching stars changed (and got a lot more complicated) after the 9.3.0 patch. Assuming you have the patch installed, you can read about the formulas here. For set pieces, it’s:
(att + men + tec) * 3 + ddm * 2
>=270 -> 7 stars
>=240 -> 6 stars
>=210 -> 5 stars
ddm is Determination + Discipline + Motivating.
For me, that’s too much to bother with. Fortunately, I’m much less worried about coaching stars now that I know (or strongly suspect, at least) that they don’t affect CA increases.